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The Greatest Depression

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Average: 5 (1 vote)

The FDIC has warned that well over 100 banks, and possibly over 200 banks, will fail in the coming year. Considering that the failure of just IndyMac bank depleted the FDIC's reserves 10-20%, the average investor should watch the financial pages with great concern for his or her own economic sustainability and fiscal well being.

America has a financial disease which will only get worse. But the problem's root does not lie with the banks. It starts with the mortgage lending rules being relaxed to boost the economy after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Loaning money to anyone who could fog a mirror led both directly and indirectly to the current housing market depression, in which some California developers have been seen selling two houses for the price of one, and foreclosures have ballooned to all time highs.

The abundance of those new, seemingly infallible mortgages after 9/11 caused new markets to erupt as collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) and mortgage backed securities evolved an ecosystem of complex derivatives instruments that bundled and packaged worthless paper to sell to a public who unwittingly purchased and traded them as though their AAA rating wasn't its only collateral, when in fact, it was. That $1 quadrillion market has effectively ended itself, because buying and purchasing debt means exactly that. It means you are buying and selling something that holds absent value.

The hedge funds are heavily invested in the derivatives markets, and they are just now starting to fail alongside the banks. Just last night, the $3 billion Osparie Fund collapsed, giving an insight to the financial trauma possible by these hedge funds, the financial markets' equivalent of roulette-odds gamblers.

Ever since the Federal Reserve stopped publishing the M3 report of the aggregate money supply in 2006, there hasn't been an accurate governmental accounting of inflation. According to the highly respected economist John Williams from www.shadowstats.com (as often referenced in bestselling books and in the financial papers), real inflation is currently around 17%. Yep, really.

Another statistic the Fed has recently discontinued has been the amount of foreign wealth invested in America. If one happens to read the financial pages, as I do, it's obvious that the government doesn't want people to know that sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East have already begun to purchase large percentages of the skylines of major cities, major ownership in major banks like Citigroup, large blocks of cities' foreclosed suburbs they can buy for pennies on the dollar, major bridges, entire HIGHWAY systems they're turning into toll roads, and even (and here's the REAL shocker) the PUBLIC UTILITIES OF DISTRESSED CALIFORNIA CITIES.

Overreaction? No, I think not. Wisconsin Republican Congressman Paul Ryan told the right-wing news outlet CNSNews.com that the bankruptcy of the Republic is a certainty, that all the public actuaries and all the objective scorekeepers of the federal government are predicting total bankruptcy. (http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=33574)

So America's leadership, in a response to this looming threat, is merely letting the repo man come collect his due. China funds us, South Korea funds us, Russia funds us, the EU funds us, and they're getting their money's worth in the form of real property instead of a worthless fiat currency. The Middle East has already gotten first dibs on the most prime slices of the United States, and the rest is being divvied up right now between them and everyone else.

One has only to look at the environmental crackdowns on the private citizenry by bureaucrats from far away to recognize that America's natural physical collateral is merely being preserved so it can later be sold to the highest bidder to negate the current, automatic $500,000 owed by every family, everywhere in this nation, to pay off our government's debt. There are moves being undertaken now to limit domestic manufacturing, return farmlands back to "natural habitats" the DNR stocks with whatever is available, while still selling huge mines across America to foreign mining interests who don't clean up their workspace and don't pay their environmental fines while the "precious" wildlife suffers the consequences. These lamentable events and laws are undemocratic, hypocritical, and they're flat-out destroying America's sovereignty.

Witness now the proposed seizure of private lands in KOOCHICHING COUNTY by the environmentalists through new zoning changes being kept suspiciously quiet. When growth is limited, there can be no growth; that's the goal. Voyageurs National Park and surrounding areas, once menaced by debt and foreclosures and unable to be subdivided as a result of autocratic rezoning initiatives, will make a nice addition to a Saudi portfolio.

A depression is coming. Everyone in government knows it, sophisticated investors know it, and even amateur market-debblers are coming to understand that the contrived but carefully-inked numbers on the forehead of our civilization are screaming one thing and only one thing.

As the screams become the death rattle of the Republic, and as the ink fades to become entirely red, the rest of you will find out what they mean.

The repo man is coming. He's knocking at your door right now.


And it just so happens that...

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And it just so happens that I'm back, for now. Good to see that the familiar names are still posting. And thank you, Thomas, for always bringing your brand of logic to a place populated by joespoons and roj2000s.

For this blog, however, I'm not exaggerating. I hear the death knell of America sounding with every bank buried.


Submitted by Joespoon04 on September 3, 2008 - 4:04pm.

There have been, to date,...

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There have been, to date, two handfuls of bank failures including Friday's failure of the Silver State Bank in Henderson, NV, whose director just happened to be Andrew McCain, son the equally economically challenged candidate for president. It is always kind of a big deal when banks fail but the world of 2008 is not the world of 1929. Thanks to the Big Government/High Tax liberals of the past, namely FDR, the little guys like Joespoon and roj and TLJ have the FDIC protections. Of course, the whole house of cards could collapse and we would all be bartering with Anton for smoked whitefish. But that is such a longshot that only Chicken Little is expecting it.
The greatest thing about America is that we get to change regimes on a regular basis. I'm kind of hoping that the trash-talking governor -- I swear I saw her eating walleye at the Thunderbird on Saturday -- doesn't deter us from throwing out the architects of the current mess. And I mean on both sides of the aisle.


Submitted by Thomas L. Johnson on September 8, 2008 - 9:05am.

Well, Thomas, the biggest...

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Well, Thomas, the biggest secret in DC is the movement towards Philip Bobbitt's market states inside Zbigniew Brzezinski's global government. Conspiracy theorists tend to call these structures the "New World Order" but I merely read the essays and books of the people who write policy and recognize that it's happening, and for it to happen, there must be a colossal failure of the Republic. The coming "failure" will be the greatest successful consolidation of civilization in the history of the world.

Right now, if one watches the markets of these dark times, it seems at first blush that the central banks of the major nations are propping up the dollar. And they are, but it's merely a postponement of the inevitable, in order to allow the investors of their countries time to get the warning and redistribute their assets before they let our economy crash, then swoop in and buy everything at Depression-level prices.

The dollar is going the way of the Roman provincial denominations. It is becoming quickly outdated and irrelevant and clipped and inflated into nonexistence. When Republicans like Congressman Paul Ryan start saying, in no uncertain terms (as in the link in the original post above) that America is going bankrupt and everyone in government knows it, that's hardly the clucking of Chicken Little.

I'm not picking a fight with you, Thomas, but when Grand Chessboard Master Zbigniew Brzezinski is a foreign policy adviser to the Obama camp while his son, meanwhile, is advising McCain, I can't help but recognize that both sides are bought and paid for and trying to bring in world government for the long-term.

Even Sakashvilii said, in an interview with Glen Beck, that his country's conflict with Russia is not about him or his people, but rather, it is about "the future of the New World Order." It's on youtube; you can look it up. It's somewhere near the other clips of the Georgian President eating his tie and running from imaginary assassins like a little girl.

Go read Philip Bobbitt's "The Shield of Achilles". Professor Bobbitt, by the way, was one of the writers of the CIA's charter, and he's a brilliant thinker. Brzezinski's "The Grand Chessboard" also outlines the thinking of the insiders.

Frankly, I straight-up ADMIRE the vision of the NWO. I think it's the most compelling vision of peace and harmony and order in a world that's increasingly bat-ship crazy. I want that understood: I admire the vision and brilliance of the idea.

However, because I am a part of the population segment that will be eaten by the vultures who swoop in and gobble up the assets of the country, I must first be loyal to my own interests. Any living soul first takes care of #1, and no one can be faulted for his loyalty to himself.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were just taken over by the Treasury. That's a potential additional $300 billion the U.S. taxpayer will need to pay for, plus interest. We don't see the trickle-down effect of these new debts for many months and years afterwards.

We're going down, bro. Realign your investments to reflect these changing times. In addition to the noble metals, that includes insuring the value of northern Minnesota real estate by opposing the insane rezoning initiatives being pushed through as we speak.


Submitted by Joespoon04 on September 8, 2008 - 12:32pm.

That's why alot of my money...

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That's why alot of my money is hidden (in cash) under my bed [no kidding], and when this apocalyptic moment happens, I will swoop down like a vulture, and buy out the entire "Stop Island" for a mere 15 thousand dollars [assuming the dollar is still of some value]. While I'm at it, I'll throw in another 15K for Grindstone Island. Then I will annex it to VNP for billions!! By the way, how does George W. Bush fit into this equation?? He is always the fall guy.


Submitted by roj2000 on September 8, 2008 - 1:27pm.

Just as one cannot fault...

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Just as one cannot fault mongrel dogs for immoral acts in public parks, no one can fault Bush for doing what he does. In both cases, one just sits and watches in disgust and amazement at what's going on.

If Bush can be blamed for anything, though, it would be the implementation of a functional, federalized police state to contain the 30% of the population of the future who will be out of work and actively looking to fill their bellies and their pockets. And I guess there's the whole thing with the burning of the 4th amendment and Habeas Corpus, the limiting of free speech to "zones", the revocation of posse comitatus, and the wholesale erasure of America's moral authority in the eyes of the entire world.

I, for one, just consider him a beast of some unknown breed who makes zoo noises and apes human body language as though he himself wasn't an abomination against God.


Submitted by Joespoon04 on September 8, 2008 - 2:17pm.

Spoon04, Let's see.... I've...

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Spoon04,

Let's see.... I've got my pencil ready here, and have taken the liberty of erasing your name off the McCain/Palin ballot for President/Vice President, correct? I would no sooner lump Bush in with the mongrel dogs, than I would the "mixed breed" that is running on the Demonrat ticket!! I must agree with TLJ in that the Presidency has evolved to nothing more than a "puppet role"! Just like in little ole I-Falls, there are powerful people who influence what, when and where important decisions are made. I took very few courses in economics, but I would hardly tend to believe that the end is near. Although I do admit that lately the large sum of money under my bed has made me just as much money as my investments. President Bush has been rather nice and given my Military Retirement COLA's every year. So, in the end, I'm doing alright, and will continue to do so, unless one more Muslim gets into higher office! President Bush may be a little lower on the food chain than you would prefer, however, I do believe that Mr Obama, has the ears and eyes of the Anti-Christ! Read the bible, and you will see what I'm saying. Get Obama into office, and he will begin assembling all of the Nations and people into the correct alignment, and the end will be near. THAT, you can take to the bank.


Submitted by roj2000 on September 8, 2008 - 5:04pm.

I sure don't believe in a...

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I sure don't believe in a puppet theory. I do believe that we conduct an amateur hour every four years and pick the person who gives the cutest stage performance. I would be much more comfortable electing parties and letting the leaders of the party be the leaders of the land. That is how Britain got Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair. That is how the Germans got Angela Merkel. She's twice as boring as Palin and has neither a shotgun or a passle of strangely-named children BUT she has been an effective leader. The only thing that saves us is that the winner of the amhour contest usually surrounds himself with competent individuals to help him lead. That was Kennedy's strength and Clinton's too. Nixon, except for Kissinger, and Bush 43 were too small and distrustful to bring in the big guns so we got the Erlichman, Haldeman, Libbey, Karl Rove type of person. Colin Powell was too powerful and popular [and committed to truth], so he got replaced by the wonderful little terrier, Condy Rice. And we got blind adherence to ideology.


Submitted by Thomas L. Johnson on September 9, 2008 - 10:23am.

Back in the day, it was...

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Back in the day, it was Henry Kissinger who was the European to be feared. Then he got married, went back to teaching, got really old, and became a regular on CNN. Now the eighty year-old Zbig from the Jimmy Carter clique seems to be replacing him in the nightmares of the fearful and I suspect that his successors are already lined up -- Madeline Albright and then Condy Rice, who is not foreign-born but is schooled in Russian. The more things change . . .

So some conspiracy writers create this incredibly complex plot, align it with some other distant event [distant mirroring -- Thanks to Barbara Tuchman] and then imagine scenarios. For instance, the great mortality scenario as in the Black Death of 1347-49 seems to suggest that a worldwide epidemic would destroy the status quo, as the original did, reduce the power of religion, increase the importance of secretive groups -- templars, Jewish lenders, French nobility -- some group that seems bent on ignoble acts. Nothing is more fearful than a secret society . . .

As for me, I choose to live in a high trust society. I have invested my retirement funds with people I will never meet. It will have doubled and tripled by the time I need it. I also believe that elections are influenced but not managed, that politiciams are sometimes owned but never totally controlled and the most conspiracies are nothing more than the products of overripe imaginations.

Is there one historical conspiracy -- the assassination of JFK, MLK Jr, the Archduke F. Ferdinand, bombing of the Reichstag, sinking of the Titanic, UFO's over Denver that has actually proven to have been a conspiracy where the unknowing public was led to believe something that was absolutely false? If that proves to be true, I will bother to waste a few hours on Mr. Bobbitt's screed.

If there are truly dishonest people in the world, they are the ones telling you to put your savings into gold or platinum. They know, as well as I do, that the man who sells you a million dollars in gold has taken your million dollars to invest and tap into the miracle of compound interest. Just as the value of money that floats against other currencies depends on the faith of those with items to sell, so it is with gold. While you sit and watch your "noble metal" earn nothing I will stay with my financial plan adjusting it for changes in the business cycle or strength of certain segments of the financial market.

"We're going down?" Probably not in our lifetimes. Eventually, all empires decline so we will too, but there is never a group of plotters planning their decline, just some failure to adjust to changing conditions. And the quality of life in England, or Spain, or Rome, or even Russia? Just fine, thank you.


Submitted by Thomas L. Johnson on September 8, 2008 - 3:14pm.

Thomas, the hands that craft...

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Thomas, the hands that craft your sentences are steady and skillful. Your familiarity with nuance, implicit skepticism, and embedded directives are all as good as I've seen, and I've seen quite a lot despite my youth. You can certainly work your orchestra of words and meanings as a tool for delivering a mood upon this discussion, but the cold facts remain when the warm music fades.

- A $53 trillion debt for off-budget social programs is not getting paid off anytime soon.

- An economist friend of mine who runs an economic think tank in California with over a hundred fellows confirmed my suspicions in JUNE that real inflation was then around 13%. Since June, of course, we've had more bank failures, more failures of GSEs like Fannie and Freddie, and the discount window at the Fed is currently loaning out $19 billion/day to failing financial institutions. Shadowstats.com puts real inflation at 17% currently.

- Sovereign wealth funds from around the world are currently buying up American industries, American land, and have even begun to eye the public utilities of distressed California cities. (That was in Bloomberg last week, but here's a good analysis: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1832861,00.html

- Fareed Zacharia has written a book called "The Post American World" in which he details our decreasing importance in a world of stratosphere-chasing juggernaut Chinese and Indian economies. There is a breakdown of the issue by him here: http://www.newsweek.com/id/135380/output/print

- The Constitution and Bill of Rights are in tatters, and as such, when enlisted men take their oath, the first of the three loyalties is now subverted and irrelevant. Now one can just tell them to protect the chain of command that makes the new rules, and they are obligated to obey, no matter how treasonous we may have considered the order back in the good-old-days when we followed a Constitution.

- The Treasury just took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If that's not the abject socialization of formerly free markets, then what exactly would you call it? And when was the last time anything resembling such an amazing reversal of principles happened?

- The housing depression is not getting better in the short-term or the short-mid-term. That means there will continue to be more foreclosures, more federal debt the taxpayer must pay off, and more money the federal government must borrow from foreign interests that those same foreign interests will want back in one form or another.

- Even the Cold War never saw American and Russian battleships parked in the same port during tensions. Now, the Russians are sending battle groups to Venezuela in a response to our outright aggression on the concept of their hegemony. The situation in reverse with this whole Russia/Georgia thing would be if Russia was training Mexican or Canadian troops on our border and then shelling our National Guard outposts. (Everyone but FOX News watchers know that, but that's a topic for another thread.)

With all of these things, Thomas (and there are so many more, by the way), there is very little light at the end of the tunnel. If I had bought an ounce of gold back in 2003, I would have more than doubled it if I sold it today. That's a decent profit, and far more than retirement accounts are earning. I believe that the old standby of a 10% investment in gold is not wasted, and when the locked-in hyperinflationary period finally hits us 6-8 months after the injections, that gold will be worth quite a lot.

I cannot trust this government. I cannot trust a government that seems to want to destroy the thoughtful person's trust in it. I cannot defend the baboon of the last eight years, and I can't trust whichever joker we get in office next, because no matter who it is, he's going to cut social security and healthcare for Americans because he will have no choice. And why does he have no choice? Because this government is corrupt, wasteful, manipulative, treasonous, felonious, and petty, and the very thought that we might so easily live in the mythical "high trust" society some so proudly advocate, offends me. It offends my sensibilities, it offends my intelligence, it offends my honor as a believer in the documents that declared to the world the liberty and rights that God has given us as free men and women.


Submitted by Joespoon04 on September 8, 2008 - 5:26pm.

As a side note I might as...

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As a side note I might as well add that those who have advocated strong security for America above all things certainly have my permission to invade the empty gas tanks of the future as well as barren food shelves, the depressed housing market and the hyperinflationary dollar.


Submitted by Joespoon04 on September 4, 2008 - 10:55pm.

I deeply appreciate the...

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I deeply appreciate the seriousness of your columns, Joe, and never deny that much of what you say supports my personal view that the last eight years have been an unncecessary disaster and that the next four, almost irrespective of whom we elect will be challenging as our choices are a 72-year-old so-called maverick who has no great vision and a 40ish visionary who lacks real executive experience.
a. The fact the foreigners are buying American assets is pretty much the story of globalization. Americans, for their part, are buying assets all over the world as the whole business of globalization is allowing the free flow of capital. Foreign direct investment in China and Eastern Europe has been huge.
I like to listen to but do not agree with your Professor Bobbitt, by the way, that market states will replace national states. The one thing we know about corporations is that they are at best "shabby temporary arrangements" [John Updike]. In the last few months the "STATES" of Siemens, General Motors, Bear
Stearns, Freddie, Starbucks have stumbled or even fallen. The Beijing Olympics showed us, however, the persistence of national cultures. As China westernizes, it will become more like the US, but then it will reassert itself as a unique culture much the way France has and Brazil is doing.
b. We have seen a total failure of the idea of supply-side economics which holds that cutting the taxes of the rich will create wealth and cut debt production by the central government. And that will have to be somehow communicated by someone with enough guts to tell people that the leading economic and military powers need to tax their citizens -- as they always have.
c. The fundamental difference between us resides in your belief in some sort of deep structure of conspiracy that is leading us down a road to disaster. That was the sort of thing that Hitler manipulated after the disaster of WWI in Germany. [I am not implying anything Hitlerian about your blogs] He was so convincing that people actually believed him when he named the Jews as the source.
Roosevelt, dealing with the same worldwide economic decline, wore the hat of the optimist-- THE ONLY THING WE HAVE TO FEAR . . .he created job corps, social security, FDIC protections. In short, he managed a crisis by changing the surface institutions, not by worrying about some Bolshevik-jewish cabal. I share that blithe optimistic spirit that believes an open society with basic freedoms really produces solutions to the problems we face.


Submitted by Thomas L. Johnson on September 9, 2008 - 10:12am.

There sure is some good...

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There sure is some good blogging going on here, Right wing, left wing and insightful on both ends. TJ, I just about see a middle left wing side of you. I do agree that Spoon is a good writer and Roj although sometimes on an edge is also, but you are good man. I do like history lessons. Keep up the good work, and stay close to the middle because that is where this thing is going to be decided. By the way, I did have a discussion the other day with someone and they ranted about how bad Palin is(I do not agree with her religious views by the way), about how she is not experianced enough and how could she worry about pushing "the button" when she is feeding the kids, ask that kind of question next time you are interviewing a female candidate and see what it gets you, anyway, she also said she was voting for Obama because he was a great speaker and I had to say "so was Hitler". Me bad, but thanks for the good writing everyone.


Submitted by Doorsman 54 on September 9, 2008 - 12:09pm.

I am so glad that the...

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I am so glad that the knowledgeable, thoughtful segment of the population of International Falls has reared its monster brains on this blog. TLJ, Doorsman, and even the crossed wires of roj2000 have made an appearance and brought up serious issues with serious rebuttal. I love the free thought here, and I think we're all grateful there are some macro-scale thinkers here.

Regardless about how you all feel about the possibility of a new Great Depression, I would urge everyone to look into the possibility of putting 10% of their assets into physical gold and silver. This is a common number, I am saying nothing unusual by advocating it, and it would be a great insurance policy against a drastically devaluing dollar anyway.

That's all I'm gonna say, folks. Inflation is far worse than the Fed's statistics. It's locked in. What is needed now are stores of real value that can hold their value while inflation takes the value away from our dollars.

I'll shut up now, but it is not a dumb decision to investigate these possibilities. You may email me privately at joespoon04@hotmail.com if you have questions. And no, I'm not selling anything. I just don't want to see starving rioters hit International Falls in a Depression. I'm protecting my own, in other words.


Submitted by Joespoon04 on September 9, 2008 - 1:46pm.

Joespoon04, you get the next...

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Joespoon04, you get the next shot at this. I would like to reawaken and extend this line of thought so that in posterity, when the world economy has either gone into the tank or not gone into the tank, we can look back and say that we at least got a few things right. I can admit that I am far less optimistic than I was two weeks ago. I knew that WaMutual would fail after having a conversation with one of their managers two weeks ago in Chicago. But it registers as the largest bank failure since Continental Illinois went down decades ago.
As I see it, we are now so ideologically polarized that an easy or wise solution is almost impossible to achieve. Too many believe in unregulated free trade about as much as they believe in Ronald Reagan. . . .which is only overshadowed by their belief that the supreme being believes in free markets too. And too many others believe that corporations, the federal government, or the current occupants are evil from top to bottom and are the children of Lucifer. Only half of them are.
The great irony is that this thing might happen with Barney Frank, Henry Paulson, W, Mrs Pelosi, and Ben Bernanke sleeping together in the same bed. What a strange bed.
If the sun comes up on Monday, I will be interested in where we go with with this depression blog.


Submitted by Thomas L. Johnson on September 26, 2008 - 8:29am.

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